Breaking Down the First Round

I want to highlight how 1st rounds go in the NFL. 

All information was found from PFR (draft picks/players) and Mike Mayok’s Big Boards (rankings).

I decided to see how it broke down into position in top ten and full 1st round along with the prospects big board ranking. I looked at the drafts going back to 2012 for position by year. I counted up the number of the position selected and found the 5 year average. ProFootballFocus only started recently differentiating CB and S and DE OLB and ILB. This was a time consuming project so I used my knowledge to determine which players played which position. I pretty much broke it down in CB and S with the majority of their playing time in either position and for DE and OLB I used only EDGE players and ILB were ILB or OLBs in 4-3 defenses.

I then used Mike Mayoks big boards to find the rank of the players and averaged them as well. I knew there was going to be a huge spread from year to year. His data only went back to 2013.

*Disclaimer: The 2013 draft was crazy not only with the picks but the fact that it was a terrible draft. It took a lot of these players a number of years to finally get on track.

Top Ten Positional Breakdown by Year

Position 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 AVG
QB 2 2 1 0 3 1.6
RB 1 1 0 0 1 0.6
WR 0 2 2 1 1 1.2
TE 0 0 1 0 0 0.2
OT 2 2 2 3 1 2
OG 0 0 0 2 0 0.4
C 0 0 0 0 0 0
DE 2 1 1 2 0 1.2
DT 0 0 0 0 0 0
OLB 1 2 1 1 0 1
ILB 0 0 1 0 1 0.4
CB 2 0 1 1 2 1.2
S 0 0 0 0 1 0.2

This is the top 10 picks in every round form 2012-2016. There is clearly an emphasis on QB (1.6) and OT (2) in the top 10 picks. WR, CB, and DE (all 1.2) all have emphasis as well. It is a safe bet to predict that a QB will go top ten along with a pass rusher and tackle.

Here is the rest of each years picks broken down:

Position 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 AVG
QB 4 2 3 1 4 2.8
RB 1 2 0 0 3 1.2
WR 4 6 5 3 4 4.4
TE 0 0 1 1 0 0.4
OT 4 4 4 5 2 3.8
OG 2 2 1 3 2 2
C 1 1 0 1 0 0.6
DE/OLB 5 6 5 5 7 5.6
DT 4 3 2 4 3 3.2
ILB 0 1 2 2 2 1.4
CB 5 3 5 4 5 4.4
S 2 2 4 3 0 2.2

We get a better idea of the positions as well as which are still important 1st round picks but not top ten. WR more than doubles from top 10 pick (1.2-4.4) to full 32 pick round same increase with corners. Edge players are the most pick position in the first round sitting at 5.6/32 picks. In each of the last three years we have seen 4 tackles go 1st round. Tight ends and centers are both under 1 player/32 picks.

Below is my favorite graphic. It gives a breakdown of the big board rank (Mike Mayocks top 100) of the players selected in that spot. I used his most recent big board each year.

 Pick 2013 2014 2015 2016 AVG
1 1 2 6 10 4.75
2 3 3 5 1 3
3 5 15 2 8 7.5
4 6 4 4 6 5
5 9 1 8 2 5
6 10 5 1 4 5
7 8 7 3 7 6.25
8 12 23 13 14 15.5
9 16 14 21 11 15.5
10 4 8 19 22 13.25
11 15 6 7 9 9.25
12 14 17 12 12 13.75
13 7 12 28 3 12.5
14 11 13 9 19 13
15 17 18 10 25 17.5
16 41 9 22 18 22.5
17 19 11 14 58 25.5
18 28 22 24 15 22.25
19 24 60 26 13 30.75
20 29 21 23 33 26.5
21 13 16 52 34 28.75
22 35 10 11 27 20.75
23 2 37 18 23 20
24 26 19 25 16 21.5
25 20 29 43 47 34.75
26 27 53 15 20 28.75
27 42 43 37 39 40.25
28 22 26 53 46 36.75
29 30 64 34 21 37.25
30 44 54 30 31 39.75
31 92 25 50 28 48.75
32 25 42 20 29

This really shows how much draft experts know, which is pretty much the same as you. Besides the top 7 it is pretty much tossing darts at a HUGE board. You can see some outliers that raise the average but for the most part this illustrates the point. A few picks here and there are pretty close such as 22 with a 20.75 ranking. The fifth pick is the only one that is right on.

 

Hopefully this helps you with your own mock draft.

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One response

  1. […] I will not do a breakdown of my top 8 picks with this mock however, I will highlight a previous article on how the first round pans out. This article can be found right here. […]

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