Tom’s 2017 Mock Draft 1.0

Since most of football’s fanbase is disappointed at this point in the NFL season I decided to release my mock draft! I’d like to explain how I develop my picks.

First, I look at historical data of drafts from teams preference of players and location. For instance, Will McClay, of the Dallas Cowboys, is a big supporter of power 5 conference schools. The Cowboys will usually go that route until the later rounds. I use this as a variable in my extremely complex “formula” for picking.

Second, I look at the value of position. Usually interior lineman, safeties, and running backs are not high picks or too many first round picks for that matter. Offensive tackles, edge rushers, and quarterbacks are a limited supply. If anyone knows anything about economics if supply is low price is high. This is why Sam Bradford fetches 1st round picks and 18 million a year.

Third, I look at teams expiring contracts. For all of this data I go to http://overthecap.com/. It is an amazing place for everything cap related. A portion of the teams will draft for future expiring contracts. Not this seasons, but in one or two seasons. You see this with the Patriots and quarterbacks. No they are not trying to get Brady’s replacement. They are replacing the backup.

Fourth, I take everything with a grain of salt. Every year you have the risers and fallers. CBS’s big board only has 2 offensive tackles in the top 25. I bet at least 4 go in the first round. Every year theres a few safeties who are top 15 talents and go second or third round. I know this mock draft is going to be trash but its January. Its a time to forget whoever is in the playoffs and have someone talk about your team.

Finally, I try to shake things up. Just make some picks on gut feelings. The draft is so volatile that sometimes this is the only way to make picks. I look at some smaller school guys and one year wonders and just make the pick.

Enjoy!

 

Pick Team Player Position College
1. Cleveland Browns Myles Garrett DE Texas A&M
2. San Francisco 49ers Deshone Kizer QB Notre Dame
3. Chicago Bears Ryan Ramczyk OT Wisconsin
4. Jacksonville Jaguars Jonathan Allen DT Alabama
5. Tennessee Titans (from LOS) Malik Hooker S Ohio State
6. New York Jets Cam Robinson OT Alabama
7. San Diego Chargers  Soloman Thomas  EDGE Stanford
8. Carolina Panthers  Marshon Lattimore  CB Ohio State
9. Cincinnati Bengals  Derek Barnett  EDGE  Tennessee
10. Buffalo Bills  Jamal Adams  S  LSU
11. New Orleans Saints  Rueben Foster  ILB  Alabama
12. Cleveland Browns (from PHI)  Mike Trubisky  QB  North Carolina
13. Arizona Cardinals  Zach Cunningham  ILB  Vanderbilt
14. Philadelphia Eagles (from MIN)  Marlon Humphrey  CB  Alabama
15 Indianapolis Colts  Chris Harris  EDGE  Missouri
16. Baltimore Ravens Takkarist McKinley  EDGE  UCLA
17. Washington Redskins  Chris Wormley  EDGE  Michigan
18. Tennessee Titans  Quincy Wilson  CB  Florida
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers  Dalvin Cook RB  Florida State
20. Denver Broncos  Leonard Fournette  RB  LSU
21. Detroit Lions  Caleb Brantley  DT  Florida
22. Miami Dolphins  Malik McDowell  DT  Michigan State
23. New York Giants Taco Charlton  DE  Michigan
24. Oakland Raiders  OJ Howard  TE  Alabama
25. Houston Texans  TJ Watt  LB  Wisconsin
26. Seattle Seahawks  Garrett Bolles  OT  Utah
27. Kansas City Chiefs  Jalen Tabor  CB  Florida
28. Dallas Cowboys  Demarcus Walker  DE  Florida State
29. Green Bay Packers  Desmond King  CB  Iowa
30. Pittsburgh Steelers  Jabrill Peppers  DB  Michigan
31*. Arizona Cardinals (from NE) Pat Mahommes  QB  Texas Tech
32*. Atlanta Falcons Montravius Adams  DT/DE  Auburn

*Subject to change

Things that will change

You may have noticed my lack of WR in this mock. WR are usually late movers and once one team grabs one they start to go fast. WR is usually a very deep class of highly athletic, speedy guys. They are hard to separate at this point in my research.

Quarterbacks will have a higher number than what I have right now. Someone will trade up for a first round quarterback. If it is a early draft trade then more could follow or some teams could enter into the later picks of the first round such as Dallas and Atlanta’s picks.

Interior lineman will have on top 20 pick. It only takes one team to have a high rating on a guy to take a guy before their value. I am not saying interior lineman aren’t valuable, but teams do not see them as 1st round pick worthy, which is a shame.

Breakdown of my Top 8 Picks

Pick #1 Cleveland Browns

The Browns are in desperate need of talent across the board. So far all signs lead one of the most obvious signings unless they decide to revert to their old ways. Myles Garrett is deemed a generation talent. At this point they can wait until their next pick to find a QB. Passing on Garrett would be a huge mistake for Cleveland.

Pick #2 San Fransisco 49ers

The 49ers need a big change in their football culture. Going out and getting their number one choice at QB will begin the cleanse that the previous regime tainted on San Fran. Kizer has the size and abilities to stay in the league for a long time.

Pick #3 Chicago Bears

Chicago is in need of a new QB. There seems to be a lack of a clear cut top signal caller and the 49ers going QB right before them. They help improve their attractiveness to potential free agent QBs in Tony Romo and Tyrod Taylor. He comes with injury concern but enough talent that if cleared medically, would ascend him into a top 5 pick.

Pick #4 Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags could go QB here but with Allen still on their board his potential tips the scales in his favor. He is a dominate interior lineman that abuses offensive lines. He has the ability to generate pass rush from a position that the NFL does not see often. Jacksonville rolls with Bortles for another stomach churning season while starting the build the defense for the next signal caller.

Pick #5 Tennessee Titans

More teams are finding out that the last line of defense can hide many holes in a defense. The Titans were able to find success on offense only to have their defense be a liability. Hooper gives them the “Eric Berry Mold” to solidify the back end. His range, size, and athleticism gives them a special talent that will patrol half the field for the foreseeable future.

Pick #6 New York Jets

The Jets have a large range of needs that starts with QB. Something had to be going on with the way they handled Hackenberg. I believe they are rolling with him as their starter. If they want him to have any of the success they foresee then they need to upgrade the o line. Robinson has been quite solid for Alabama creating holes for his running backs and helping keep the QBs upright. He is the highest graded OT on the board and definitely upgrades from what they have now.

Pick #7 San Diego Chargers

San Diego is craving a great draft to get it’s new fan base excited. They select Soloman Thomas who I have as an OLB in the NFL. Pairing Thomas with Bosa would be a formidable duo in a few years.

Pick #8 Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are believing they messed up by letting Norman go. They are wrong. The will try to rectify this with selecting Marshon Lattimore. Marshon is a decent sized corner who has the ability to shadow upper half NFL receivers.

 

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2 responses

  1. I like your breakdown of how you mock. I put a lot of time into my mocks as well, so I can appreciate the effort. Certainly turned out one of the more interesting results. Look forward to seeing how it evolves.

    Like

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