Since most of football’s fanbase is disappointed at this point in the NFL season I decided to release my mock draft! I’d like to explain how I develop my picks.
First, I look at historical data of drafts from teams preference of players and location. For instance, Will McClay, of the Dallas Cowboys, is a big supporter of power 5 conference schools. The Cowboys will usually go that route until the later rounds. I use this as a variable in my extremely complex “formula” for picking.
Second, I look at the value of position. Usually interior lineman, safeties, and running backs are not high picks or too many first round picks for that matter. Offensive tackles, edge rushers, and quarterbacks are a limited supply. If anyone knows anything about economics if supply is low price is high. This is why Sam Bradford fetches 1st round picks and 18 million a year.
Third, I look at teams expiring contracts. For all of this data I go to http://overthecap.com/. It is an amazing place for everything cap related. A portion of the teams will draft for future expiring contracts. Not this seasons, but in one or two seasons. You see this with the Patriots and quarterbacks. No they are not trying to get Brady’s replacement. They are replacing the backup.
Fourth, I take everything with a grain of salt. Every year you have the risers and fallers. CBS’s big board only has 2 offensive tackles in the top 25. I bet at least 4 go in the first round. Every year theres a few safeties who are top 15 talents and go second or third round. I know this mock draft is going to be trash but its January. Its a time to forget whoever is in the playoffs and have someone talk about your team.
Finally, I try to shake things up. Just make some picks on gut feelings. The draft is so volatile that sometimes this is the only way to make picks. I look at some smaller school guys and one year wonders and just make the pick.
|1.||Cleveland Browns||Myles Garrett||DE||Texas A&M|
|2.||San Francisco 49ers||Deshone Kizer||QB||Notre Dame|
|3.||Chicago Bears||Ryan Ramczyk||OT||Wisconsin|
|4.||Jacksonville Jaguars||Jonathan Allen||DT||Alabama|
|5.||Tennessee Titans (from LOS)||Malik Hooker||S||Ohio State|
|6.||New York Jets||Cam Robinson||OT||Alabama|
|7.||San Diego Chargers||Soloman Thomas||EDGE||Stanford|
|8.||Carolina Panthers||Marshon Lattimore||CB||Ohio State|
|9.||Cincinnati Bengals||Derek Barnett||EDGE||Tennessee|
|10.||Buffalo Bills||Jamal Adams||S||LSU|
|11.||New Orleans Saints||Rueben Foster||ILB||Alabama|
|12.||Cleveland Browns (from PHI)||Mike Trubisky||QB||North Carolina|
|13.||Arizona Cardinals||Zach Cunningham||ILB||Vanderbilt|
|14.||Philadelphia Eagles (from MIN)||Marlon Humphrey||CB||Alabama|
|15||Indianapolis Colts||Chris Harris||EDGE||Missouri|
|16.||Baltimore Ravens||Takkarist McKinley||EDGE||UCLA|
|17.||Washington Redskins||Chris Wormley||EDGE||Michigan|
|18.||Tennessee Titans||Quincy Wilson||CB||Florida|
|19.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Dalvin Cook||RB||Florida State|
|20.||Denver Broncos||Leonard Fournette||RB||LSU|
|21.||Detroit Lions||Caleb Brantley||DT||Florida|
|22.||Miami Dolphins||Malik McDowell||DT||Michigan State|
|23.||New York Giants||Taco Charlton||DE||Michigan|
|24.||Oakland Raiders||OJ Howard||TE||Alabama|
|25.||Houston Texans||TJ Watt||LB||Wisconsin|
|26.||Seattle Seahawks||Garrett Bolles||OT||Utah|
|27.||Kansas City Chiefs||Jalen Tabor||CB||Florida|
|28.||Dallas Cowboys||Demarcus Walker||DE||Florida State|
|29.||Green Bay Packers||Desmond King||CB||Iowa|
|30.||Pittsburgh Steelers||Jabrill Peppers||DB||Michigan|
|31*.||Arizona Cardinals (from NE)||Pat Mahommes||QB||Texas Tech|
|32*.||Atlanta Falcons||Montravius Adams||DT/DE||Auburn|
*Subject to change
Things that will change
You may have noticed my lack of WR in this mock. WR are usually late movers and once one team grabs one they start to go fast. WR is usually a very deep class of highly athletic, speedy guys. They are hard to separate at this point in my research.
Quarterbacks will have a higher number than what I have right now. Someone will trade up for a first round quarterback. If it is a early draft trade then more could follow or some teams could enter into the later picks of the first round such as Dallas and Atlanta’s picks.
Interior lineman will have on top 20 pick. It only takes one team to have a high rating on a guy to take a guy before their value. I am not saying interior lineman aren’t valuable, but teams do not see them as 1st round pick worthy, which is a shame.
Breakdown of my Top 8 Picks
Pick #1 Cleveland Browns
The Browns are in desperate need of talent across the board. So far all signs lead one of the most obvious signings unless they decide to revert to their old ways. Myles Garrett is deemed a generation talent. At this point they can wait until their next pick to find a QB. Passing on Garrett would be a huge mistake for Cleveland.
Pick #2 San Fransisco 49ers
The 49ers need a big change in their football culture. Going out and getting their number one choice at QB will begin the cleanse that the previous regime tainted on San Fran. Kizer has the size and abilities to stay in the league for a long time.
Pick #3 Chicago Bears
Chicago is in need of a new QB. There seems to be a lack of a clear cut top signal caller and the 49ers going QB right before them. They help improve their attractiveness to potential free agent QBs in Tony Romo and Tyrod Taylor. He comes with injury concern but enough talent that if cleared medically, would ascend him into a top 5 pick.
Pick #4 Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags could go QB here but with Allen still on their board his potential tips the scales in his favor. He is a dominate interior lineman that abuses offensive lines. He has the ability to generate pass rush from a position that the NFL does not see often. Jacksonville rolls with Bortles for another stomach churning season while starting the build the defense for the next signal caller.
Pick #5 Tennessee Titans
More teams are finding out that the last line of defense can hide many holes in a defense. The Titans were able to find success on offense only to have their defense be a liability. Hooper gives them the “Eric Berry Mold” to solidify the back end. His range, size, and athleticism gives them a special talent that will patrol half the field for the foreseeable future.
Pick #6 New York Jets
The Jets have a large range of needs that starts with QB. Something had to be going on with the way they handled Hackenberg. I believe they are rolling with him as their starter. If they want him to have any of the success they foresee then they need to upgrade the o line. Robinson has been quite solid for Alabama creating holes for his running backs and helping keep the QBs upright. He is the highest graded OT on the board and definitely upgrades from what they have now.
Pick #7 San Diego Chargers
San Diego is craving a great draft to get it’s new fan base excited. They select Soloman Thomas who I have as an OLB in the NFL. Pairing Thomas with Bosa would be a formidable duo in a few years.
Pick #8 Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are believing they messed up by letting Norman go. They are wrong. The will try to rectify this with selecting Marshon Lattimore. Marshon is a decent sized corner who has the ability to shadow upper half NFL receivers.