College Football Playoff – Where Each Team Stands With Two Weeks To Go

With two weeks left in the regular season, I am going to break down a number of teams who have a chance to make the College Football Playoff. Following, I will give my prediction for the Final 4 Teams. Let’s get started!

1. Alabama (11-0)

Best Win: Beat Texas A&M, 33-14

Worst Loss: None

Why They Would Be In: Alabama is the defending champs from 2015. They haven’t lost a game this year and will likely be the SEC Champion. They are the unanimous #1 team in the country.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: Looking ahead, Alabama is already playing the SEC Championship game. If they lost to Auburn next week and in the SEC title game, the Crimson Tide would likely be out. Is this going to happen? No.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 90%


2. Ohio State (10-1)

Best Win: Beat Oklahoma, 45-24

Worst Loss: Lost to Penn State, 24-21

Why They Would Be In: If they beat Michigan, they should be in even if Penn State plays in the Big 10 Championship. Their wins at this point would be over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: If the Buckeyes lose to Michigan, they would not get in. They would be 10-2 without a conference championship.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 80%


3. Clemson (10-1)

Best Win: Beat Louisville, 42-36

Worst Loss: Lost to Pittsburgh, 43-42

Why They Would Be In: If Clemson wins out and wins the ACC, they will be in. A one loss ACC Champion with wins over Louisville, Auburn, and Florida State will be enough.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: A loss to South Carolina or Virginia Tech would knock Clemson out. They control their destiny to a playoff berth.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 85%


4. Michigan (10-1)

Best Win: Beat Penn State, 49-10

Worst Loss: Loss to Iowa, 14-13

Why They Would Be In: If Michigan beats Ohio State, they would play in the Big 10 Championship. They currently have wins over Colorado, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Although the Iowa game is a bad loss, Michigan controls their own destiny from here on out.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: A loss to Ohio State would knock Michigan out of contention. They would be 10-2 without a conference championship.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 40%


5. Wisconsin (9-2)

Best Win: Beat LSU, 16-14

Worst Loss: Loss to Ohio State, 30-23

Why They Would Be In: Wisconsin will likely win the West and play in the Big 10 Championship against Ohio State, Penn State, or Michigan. Although they have two losses, both were against quality opponents. Should they win the Big 10, I think it will be enough for the Badgers to get in.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: A loss in the Big 10 Championship would remove Wisconsin from the CFB Playoff. If Minnesota beat them, they would also be out, regardless of the outcome of the Big 10 Championship.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 35%


6. Oklahoma (9-2)

Best Win: Beat West Virginia, 56-28

Worst Loss: Lost to Houston, 33-23

Why They Would Be In: If they beat Oklahoma State, Oklahoma would be a 10-2 Big 12 Champion. They have two losses, both to very good teams in Ohio State and Houston. The accolade of conference champion could be enough.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: A loss to Oklahoma State would knock them out of contention. Also, if the teams ranked ahead of them win, Oklahoma is unlikely to get in.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 20%


7. Penn State (9-2)

Best Win: Beat Ohio State, 24-21

Worst Loss: Loss to Pitt, 42-39

Why They Would Be In: With a Michigan loss, Penn State would represent the East in the Big 10 Championship. If they win this game, I think they would be in the Playoff. A Big 10 Champion with wins over Ohio State and potentially Michigan State next week would be enough to qualify.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: A loss to Michigan State or likely Wisconsin in the Big 1o Championship would knock them out. Also, a Michigan win over Ohio State would remove Penn State from the Big 10 Championship. This would end their chances as well.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 45%


8. Washington (10-1)

Best Win: Beat Stanford, 44-6

Worst Loss: Loss to USC, 26-13

Why They Would Be In: If they win out (including a Pac-12 Championship game win), Washington would be 12-1. A one loss Pac-12 Champion with wins over Stanford, Oregon, Cal is impressive.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: A loss to Washington State or likely Colorado in the Pac 12 Championship would knock them out. Also, I think Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Wisconsin or Penn State (if either won the Big 10) would get the nod over Washington. If one of these teams loses, Washington is the next in.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 35%


9. Florida (8-2)

Best Win: Beat LSU, 16-10

Worst Loss: Lost to Arkansas, 31-10

Why They Would Be In: If Florida beats Florida State and Alabama in the SEC Championship, things would get really interesting. An SEC Champion is impressive, and a win vs Alabama would really get the playoff committee’s attention.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: A loss to FSU or Alabama would end their hopes. Even if they win out, they would still need other teams to lose in order to get in.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 5%


12. Colorado (9-2)

Best Win: Beat Washington State, 38-24

Worst Loss: Lost to USC, 21-17

Why They Would Be In: If they beat Utah, they would face Washington in the Pac-12 Championship. If they win this game, they would be a 2 loss Pac-12 champ.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: A loss vs Utah or Washington would knock them out. Colorado would need a lot of help if they wanted to get in, even if they win out.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 5%


13. Oklahoma State  (9-2)

Best Win: Beat West Virginia, 37-20

Worst Loss: Lost to Central Michigan, 30-27

Why They Would Be In: The Cowboys of Oklahoma State have a small chance, but a win vs Oklahoma would earn them a Big 12 Championship. They would be 10-2 with wins over Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Pitt.

Why They Wouldn’t Be In: A loss vs Oklahoma would end their hopes. They would need a number of teams to lose in front of them to even have a shot.

Chances Of Being in the Final 4: 1%


Overall Breakdown

Teams that control their own destiny: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, Wisconsin

Teams that need some help: Penn State, Oklahoma, Washington

Teams that need a lot of help: Colorado, Florida, Oklahoma State


Big-Game Predictions:

Ohio State over Michigan

Oklahoma over Oklahoma State

Alabama over Auburn

Florida State over Florida

Colorado over Washington (Pac-12 Championship)

Penn State over Wisconsin (Big 10 Championship)

Alabama over Florida (SEC Championship)

Clemson over Virginia Tech (ACC Championship)


College Football Playoff Predictions:

1. Alabama (13-0, SEC Champion)

2. Ohio State (11-1)

3. Clemson (12-1, ACC Champion)

4. Penn State (11-2, Big 10 Champion)

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